Leicester City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a2c0562960e56914385e2ad135148a6c60d0ccadae03f3e3cdc83ad2e41d086

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,628 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	51c	7,477$3,813 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,813.16	506	44.3%224 W · 282 L	-14.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	48c	2,812$1,350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,462.22	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x32e5…8b41backed Under	49c	2,376$1,164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,211.61	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	49c	1,700$833 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$867	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf617…80c9backed Under	50c	1,149$569 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$579.98	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+47.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	50c	1,097$543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$553.84	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over	61c	996.51$609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$608.93	827	63%521 W · 306 L	+113.2wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+41.9%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Under	49c	851$417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$434.01	52	57.7%30 W · 22 L	+4.9wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+20%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Over	50c	798$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	39c	436.42$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264.9	1,409	44.5%627 W · 782 L	-6.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	49c	433.56$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.52	2,550	47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Over	50c	430$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under	49c	374.18$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.21	964	43.7%421 W · 543 L	-10.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	49c	369.69$181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.65	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over	51c	313.73$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	321	64.5%207 W · 114 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	67cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	37c	281.54$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.48	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over	51c	217.85$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.01	323	45.2%146 W · 177 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Under	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	191	45%86 W · 105 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0189…cab8backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x782e…b317backed Over	56c	179.54$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.54	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1722…a5f1backed Under	49c	164$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.64	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a4…9196backed Under	50c	160$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over	75c	159$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.25	224	58.9%132 W · 92 L	+12.6wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Under	25c	159$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.25	53	34%18 W · 35 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80fa…88aabacked Under	49c	158$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.58	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+92.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over	49c	150$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.5	655	57.7%378 W · 277 L	+26.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d2d…7950backed Under	48c	144$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.93	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+87.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7b1…3676backed Under	49c	141$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.91	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6f7…63f2backed Under	50c	140$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc385…8eb0backed Over	80c	125$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over	50c	120.04$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	182	65.9%120 W · 62 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Under	74c	116.3$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.24	44	68.2%30 W · 14 L	+4.5wins	+0.10per pick	58cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Under	20c	111.52$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.37	108	27.8%30 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed Over	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	278	46.4%129 W · 149 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Over	52c	99.27$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.5	104	48.1%50 W · 54 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3248…1095backed Over	52c	73$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.96	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe190…1a1abacked Over	51c	72$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.76	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Over	49c	71.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	102	46.1%47 W · 55 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Over	24c	69.8$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	62	40.3%25 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d1…ccb2backed Over	51c	68.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under	49c	68.08$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.72	118	50%59 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Over	51c	63.54$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	365	54.5%199 W · 166 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9db…dd44backed Over	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	64	50%32 W · 32 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over	49c	60$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	283	59.4%168 W · 115 L	+16.6wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x48ee…f383backed Over	53c	59$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Under	49c	58.82$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	131	52.7%69 W · 62 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6952…69a1backed Over	52c	58$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.88	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf788…6f86backed Over	77c	51.95$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	129	68.2%88 W · 41 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	68cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbc5…6314backed Over	51c	51$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.01	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Under	49c	49.3$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.02	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Under	49c	44.06$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.47	163	57.1%93 W · 70 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb484…68e4backed Over	52c	43.87$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6040…14eebacked Over	51c	42$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+89.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f14…c845backed Under	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	65	50.8%33 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Over	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	88	58%51 W · 37 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1628…c90bbacked Under	25c	40$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.75per pick	25cpaid	+300%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c08…e7b6backed Under	52c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.2	170	47.6%81 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe851…9471backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…f729backed Over	51c	38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under	49c	37.71$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.16	390	52.6%205 W · 185 L	+19.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9bf…d8ebbacked Over	52c	37$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b95…01babacked Over	53c	37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	47c	37$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.61	1,224	42.3%518 W · 706 L	-27.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d9b…2207backed Over	53c	36$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf09b…5971backed Over	53c	33.96$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1350…7f52backed Over	52c	32$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef5c…26f2backed Under	56c	31.55$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.91	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-3.0wins	-0.20per pick	47cpaid	-56%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Over	48c	31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	399	48.4%193 W · 206 L	+9.1wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1324…376bbacked Over	52c	31$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x139a…f758backed Over	50c	30.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc3…1e73backed Over	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	75	58.7%44 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf63…f3a0backed Over	53c	29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1067…11d5backed Over	50c	28.7$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.32	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Over	76c	28$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.28	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-19%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf4b…8048backed Under	51c	27.16$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.31	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ff…09d5backed Over	51c	27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.77	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Under	49c	26.84$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.69	95	56.8%54 W · 41 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf8a…8579backed Over	52c	26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…87f3backed Under	51c	25.84$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.66	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over	62c	25.75$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.97	732	58.5%428 W · 304 L	+46.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Over	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	228	58.8%134 W · 94 L	+7.0wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4cd…7727backed Over	50c	24.67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacd6…2b30backed Over	51c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over	49c	23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	367	58.3%214 W · 153 L	+23.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+15%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91ea…f3f0backed Over	52c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7b2…0e41backed Over	51c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c78…e29bbacked Over	58c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	62	62.9%39 W · 23 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1986…0cd0backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30d5…ea80backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	57cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44b2…03acbacked Over	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1029…3161backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	52	50%26 W · 26 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…6d90backed Over	53c	19$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Leicester City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5this page
Leicester City FC vs. Bristol City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Leicester City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Leicester City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Leicester City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Leicester City FC (-1.5)Leicester City FC won
Spread: Leicester City FC (-2.5)Bristol City FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Leicester City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event