Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a4a8fc9be18d4b4cb4e54dcb291690ee8e9a9b9c1df7d4a521a9ec83d536ba1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90a…64cebacked Yes | 0c | 3,874$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 6c | 763.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 272.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 262.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 78c | 221.23$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 210.87$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 77c | 192$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 14c | 184.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 176.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 172.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 134.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 24c | 127.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 33c | 89.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 76c | 86.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 15c | 86.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4988…f2d3backed Yes | 26c | 75.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 23c | 73.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 23c | 66.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 77c | 65.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 62.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 60.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 23c | 54.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 64c | 53.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 25c | 52.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Yes | 38c | 52.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed No | 75c | 49.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…2a29backed Yes | 41c | 35.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 44c | 33.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 76c | 17.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.