Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc872431dca4eb3fe096784957641ef3333a8376a85dc4f15e4c687b2e15f65c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 559.65$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…5c51backed Yes | 29c | 428.53$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1890…d328backed Yes | 22c | 395.34$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 19c | 378.86$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 343$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 72c | 335.69$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 334.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 262.73$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 217.78$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…5a76backed Yes | 40c | 214.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 65c | 194.95$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 77c | 186.19$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 60c | 176.32$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 136.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 124.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 113.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 107$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe06…d8d8backed No | 48c | 104.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 74c | 102.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 49c | 94.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…5842backed Yes | 29c | 93.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 90.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 72.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 33c | 61.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 60.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 48c | 58.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 28c | 54.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 65c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 50.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 24c | 49.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 49.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f5…a937backed Yes | 48c | 41.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 72c | 41.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…9d0dbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…e685backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…274cbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…ff13backed Yes | 28c | 37.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 35.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 61c | 32.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed No | 75c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 66c | 25.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 24.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 63c | 22.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 21.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 69c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 67c | 15.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…bdbfbacked No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.