Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd603a72f0bb919e944b53e5685dc8645ff670ecdbc38869df704be0e2252dee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 11c | 781.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 76c | 433.77$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 18c | 288.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 243.12$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 172.65$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…5a76backed Yes | 69c | 160.94$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 69c | 144.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 72c | 138.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 136.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked Yes | 78c | 132.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 78c | 127.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 12c | 116.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 98.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 39c | 88.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 86.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 27c | 85.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 72c | 78.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 63c | 74.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 72.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 59.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…b176backed Yes | 74c | 59.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 59.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 37c | 54.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 40c | 49.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 56c | 48.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 48.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 47.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 59c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 30c | 42.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 54c | 37.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 46c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 62c | 29.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…5c51backed Yes | 58c | 29.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 36c | 28.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 45c | 26.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 42c | 25.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 63c | 23.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 48c | 22.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.