Premier League · resolved market
Norwich City FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a591fce45d1d88dd903dbcd9b22cb89d00c997095742324acbb1c1db739bbd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cc9…18c4backed Under | 51c | 4,000$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,020 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 3,445$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,722.49 | 192 | 53.1%102 W · 90 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 50c | 2,272$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 2,031$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.46 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 1,057$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.68 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 200 | 54.5%109 W · 91 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…d88abacked Under | 3c | 650$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 76c | 390$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 61c | 221.87$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 52c | 185.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…6a3abacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 50c | 112$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 292 | 59.2%173 W · 119 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…8b74backed Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…29c5backed Over | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 45c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +9.9wins | +0.35per pick | 43cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 64c | 43.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 49c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Over | 51c | 29.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Norwich City FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Norwich City FC vs. Birmingham City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Norwich City FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Norwich City FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Norwich City FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.