Us Politics · resolved market
Will an FBI agent be charged for involvement in Jan 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a771604bfe9025037a13a72d3d6f2fe6d2249be8a0b688f298cb3db60cb1270
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $520,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $931,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $520,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 8c | 3,967$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.06 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,296$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes | 11c | 910$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…1b55backed Yes | 7c | 670$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b1…cdcfbacked Yes | 9c | 582.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…dbc7backed Yes | 9c | 577.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44dd…10dfbacked Yes | 16c | 576.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…421dbacked Yes | 7c | 500.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97d…b68cbacked Yes | 8c | 473.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 466$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 9c | 350$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d3…48f1backed Yes | 9c | 321.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…0643backed Yes | 15c | 253.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d5…fbe0backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…9d2fbacked Yes | 12c | 171.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8850…4f45backed Yes | 11c | 140.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…0dfdbacked Yes | 10c | 121.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed Yes | 16c | 62.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.