Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a99fb76858fec85f62f42d73d56d3eade49b924e0cff2c4083f9a205f1885ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 5c | 2,005$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 1,432$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 1,235$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 9c | 835.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 774.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 10c | 695$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 11c | 657.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 8c | 606$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 4c | 547.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed No | 63c | 301.09$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 270.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…cd8bbacked Yes | 4c | 249.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 6c | 230.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 8c | 219.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 7c | 209.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 9c | 181.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 32c | 173.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 13c | 134.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 45c | 124.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 71c | 121.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Yes | 49c | 119.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 21c | 115.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes | 13c | 96.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked Yes | 15c | 87.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 60c | 87.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 52c | 86.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386a…f453backed Yes | 32c | 63.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…312fbacked Yes | 76c | 62.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 21c | 49.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 60c | 32.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 48c | 31.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 74c | 30.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 80c | 28.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked No | 64c | 28.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 80c | 27.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 26.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…f376backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 19.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 78c | 18.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.