Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9548a4263c9bb7a457c1310ac6e84626ebc354c7cbfd6a398ec34da09cd4a05c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 1,246$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 471.54$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 57c | 436.92$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 412.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 400.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 385.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.02 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 358.31$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 79c | 295.05$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.59 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 238.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.33 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 23c | 233.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.52 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 24c | 212.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.58 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 8c | 192$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 46c | 162.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…bcd3backed No | 10c | 158.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 24c | 149.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes | 22c | 128.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 114$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 79c | 107.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed No | 78c | 100.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 80c | 95.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 32c | 78.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 78c | 74.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 73.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 71.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 29c | 69.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 68.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 68.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked No | 71c | 66.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 65.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 63.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 34c | 60.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 79c | 59.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 24c | 56.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 43c | 56.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 44c | 52.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 51.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 78c | 51.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 52c | 51.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca7…2b9abacked Yes | 26c | 49.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked Yes | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 74c | 44.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 43c | 43.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 26c | 42.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 30c | 42.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 74c | 42.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 25c | 41.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 39.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…189ebacked No | 80c | 38.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 78cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 30c | 34.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 73c | 34.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d7…e382backed No | 73c | 32.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 61c | 31.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 51c | 31.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 59c | 30.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 55c | 29.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 26.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 70c | 26.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 48c | 26.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 79c | 25.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 24.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 75c | 24.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 22.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 21.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 21.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 75c | 20.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…dc3abacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 77c | 18.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 64c | 17.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed Yes | 60c | 17.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 17.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 67c | 16.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 78c | 13.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.