Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a960384a8703112839242b70f5fddeef1bd09fb0b1cf074b31eab360d82337f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 1c | 9,010$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 590.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 62c | 336.87$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.51 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 242.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 38c | 199.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 39c | 168.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 9c | 153.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 63c | 138.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 80c | 134.75$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed No | 64c | 119.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 35c | 109.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 42c | 105.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…9c24backed Yes | 36c | 98.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…9b40backed Yes | 45c | 95.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 29c | 92.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 76.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 64c | 75.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…f376backed Yes | 40c | 74.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 62.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 48c | 59.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 55c | 58.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 37c | 55.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 47c | 53.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 63c | 49.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 47c | 47.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e36…03eabacked Yes | 51c | 43.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 32c | 41.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 62c | 40.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 61c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 38c | 39.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 57c | 38.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 35.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 41c | 35.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed Yes | 40c | 35.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…02f0backed Yes | 40c | 32.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 41c | 31.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 46c | 31.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…c694backed Yes | 38c | 29.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 26.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 23.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed No | 73c | 21.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 19.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 64c | 16.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 73c | 13.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 73c | 13.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.