Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a9a9296e4fbf9f1e6b2b749052545ad4b5035301f0686454184dd26838242b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 64c | 602.04$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 17c | 538.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a7…2261backed No | 21c | 395.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 15c | 340.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 30c | 228.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 38c | 207.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 77c | 193.71$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 31c | 179.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 70c | 157.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 22c | 148.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 31c | 131.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 21c | 123.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 24c | 122.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 65c | 120.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 75c | 104.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 16c | 104.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 80c | 102$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 101.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172a…c158backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 47c | 96.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 24c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 33c | 86.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 14c | 85.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 21c | 79.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 67c | 75.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 71c | 69.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 36c | 69.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 64c | 69.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 34c | 66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 32c | 64.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…a731backed No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 29c | 57.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 26c | 52.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 37c | 51.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 78c | 48.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 22c | 47.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…e1c7backed No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 33c | 40.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…c0e3backed Yes | 71c | 40.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac2…058dbacked No | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x937d…ec25backed Yes | 68c | 31.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…baf4backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…eea4backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 76c | 26.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 73c | 25.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 80c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 69c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 71c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 74c | 17.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61db…e6c1backed Yes | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 78c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…e7a0backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.