NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aeb572022c8db2679c3224fcc4d7a52d62aa34db0a6debeed180e3ba37a3dc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Grizzlies | 54c | 2,536$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.61 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a0…42a3backed Jazz | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c5…5c0dbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 46c | 1,514$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.42 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Jazz | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…531bbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 305.77$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.77 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 53cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz | 48c | 305.77$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.77 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Grizzlies | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 67c | 166$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Jazz | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Jazz | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Grizzlies | 51c | 98.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Grizzlies | 53c | 81.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed Jazz | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Jazz | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Jazz | 50c | 44.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jazz | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. JazzGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5Over won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.