NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b288d05d7527e487efc5d496589401c6cb3574efca2e28e7b99df72154c7dd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe971…350cbacked Jazz | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…74c2backed Grizzlies | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 45c | 1,153$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.79 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 55c | 1,120$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…6fa5backed Jazz | 45c | 980$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Jazz | 45c | 648$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.3 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Grizzlies | 54c | 584.15$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.55 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa524…2642backed Grizzlies | 55c | 420$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Jazz | 46c | 407$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.22 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2f…e06abacked Grizzlies | 55c | 340$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Grizzlies | 54c | 331.26$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.38 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Jazz | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…96e7backed Grizzlies | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 45c | 121$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Jazz | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Jazz | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Jazz | 47c | 106.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Jazz | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc881…6d1fbacked Grizzlies | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…3909backed Grizzlies | 55c | 78.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Grizzlies | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Jazz | 45c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99af…abd5backed Grizzlies | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Jazz | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Jazz | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Grizzlies | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Jazz | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Grizzlies | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Grizzlies | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Jazz | 47c | 42.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Grizzlies | 57c | 42.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Grizzlies | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Grizzlies | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Grizzlies | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Jazz | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…bdc9backed Grizzlies | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Grizzlies | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Grizzlies | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Jazz | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Grizzlies | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. JazzGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5Over won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.