Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7af88b8485ddf02dc9c9c11c3b6715c92fd92296fb8b788f290331fab5d9cf29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,263 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Over | 63c | 9,224$5,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,412.77 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 5,111$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.3 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 37c | 3,122$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.14 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 37c | 2,300$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Under | 48c | 866.37$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 64c | 546.22$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.22 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 44c | 286.27$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.65 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 74c | 284$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a0…7a80backed Over | 60c | 260.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Under | 37c | 202$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 181.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 32c | 86.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 19c | 79.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 72cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 37c | 47.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 35c | 42.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Under | 34c | 41.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 70c | 40.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Under | 41c | 27.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…884bbacked Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 61c | 21.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.