Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b223034108a87ae1c7c5a2503980fc451bec0d2aab8e9087f8e6e9d2d748e28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,805 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 73c | 2,114$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.8 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,320$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.26 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,249$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.45 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 1,080$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.09 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 11c | 537.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 22c | 187.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked Yes | 10c | 179.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 132$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 131$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 71.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 74c | 65.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 26c | 65.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 73c | 58.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…d445backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…ab3dbacked No | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 20.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 70c | 20.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed No | 75c | 13.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-03-21?No won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.