Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8096f60c615a44a06c98ac3de7b9eb44782e703152bdd413254063ec1db5082e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,749 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Yes | 27c | 2,322$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.95 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 77c | 1,947$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.4 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 70cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 1,945$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.36 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d8…31cfbacked No | 77c | 1,742$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.64 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,249$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.59 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 5c | 1,126$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 1,062$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.83 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 814.43$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 15c | 409.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 12c | 337.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 304.75$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…af42backed No | 74c | 295$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 73c | 187.24$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 25c | 157.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 133$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 79c | 94.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Yes | 21c | 94.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…3479backed No | 75c | 94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked Yes | 26c | 62.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 73c | 47.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…e187backed Yes | 24c | 42.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed No | 76c | 25.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 78c | 20.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d6…a0f3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed No | 74c | 17.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?No won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.