Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b25582ec6ff20359bb901e1b2821666c228f415c022dc733b66c45d3a83279f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ostapenkoof Ostapenko, Jones
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8bd…5202backed Ostapenko | 54c | 2,160$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.69 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Ostapenko | 53c | 1,437$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.19 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Jones | 46c | 1,168$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.27 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Jones | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 439 | 43.7%192 W · 247 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Jones | 48c | 699.83$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.92 | 1,047 | 50%524 W · 523 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Jones | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Jones | 50c | 583.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.65 | 428 | 41.6%178 W · 250 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Jones | 48c | 526.31$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.63 | 499 | 42.3%211 W · 288 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Ostapenko | 51c | 442.61$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.69 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…ca30backed Jones | 28c | 247.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Jones | 45c | 185.8$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…0436backed Ostapenko | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Ostapenko | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Ostapenko | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Ostapenko | 52c | 80.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Ostapenko | 55c | 74.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Ostapenko | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 956 | 55.9%534 W · 422 L | +19.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…3378backed Ostapenko | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Jones | 44c | 53.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Ostapenko | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Ostapenko | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Ostapenko | 72c | 39.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 1,877 | 59.4%1,115 W · 762 L | +8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Ostapenko | 52c | 38.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Ostapenko | 52c | 26.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 595 | 65.4%389 W · 206 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5)this page
- Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Francesca JonesJelena Ostapenko won
- Set 1 Winner: Ostapenko vs JonesOstapenko won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.