Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b451cb117f16c1428f41e8320c6337bd911a87343fc27670e065a490afbb5f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fa2…3801backed Yes | 12c | 524.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 10c | 315.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 17c | 207.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 199.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 173.75$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 16c | 173.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 31c | 111.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 14c | 83.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b2…319bbacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 24c | 79.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 20c | 78.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 18c | 75.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 18c | 73.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 27c | 69.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 62.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 50.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 25c | 47.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 46.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 76c | 39.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 80c | 38.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…323abacked Yes | 34c | 33.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 76c | 33.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 76c | 33.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 77c | 31.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 79c | 24.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 76c | 23.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 75c | 21.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…cf55backed No | 75c | 18.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x411e…9184backed No | 79c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.