Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b968a7ea63a0d4d6a10f8c291aa31a238a85e5655c5e65518dd064dab9289e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 80c | 571.19$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.65 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed Yes | 70c | 410.92$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.38 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 261.06$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…07f3backed Yes | 58c | 232.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b2…4b3dbacked No | 23c | 197.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 50c | 191.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 22c | 190.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 136.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.97 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 134.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…a97ebacked No | 70c | 91.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 90.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 66c | 78.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 59c | 69.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…ae40backed Yes | 71c | 68.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 74c | 65.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 64.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 64.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 53c | 61.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 58.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 47c | 45.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 42c | 44.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 54c | 42.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 56c | 42.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 59c | 42.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 70c | 38.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 50c | 37.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 34c | 31.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 63c | 25.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 68c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 50c | 21.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed Yes | 72c | 21.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 72c | 20.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.