Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b45460b3e97b82d892d4c87c7ecc351d346315112a87b657309b5d037d138ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Over | 35c | 7,120$2,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,488.51 | 338 | 38.2%129 W · 209 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Under | 66c | 3,650$2,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.92 | 1,225 | 49.6%607 W · 618 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 67c | 1,783$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.51 | 527 | 50.5%266 W · 261 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Under | 67c | 1,653$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.46 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Over | 33c | 1,360$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.64 | 376 | 41.8%157 W · 219 L | -18.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Over | 39c | 1,100$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 769 | 53.4%411 W · 358 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…dd23backed Under | 60c | 1,010$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.84 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 59c | 900$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…4123backed Under | 66c | 807.61$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.59 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Under | 65c | 618.4$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.44 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked Over | 34c | 595.45$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.45 | 300 | 35%105 W · 195 L | -21.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 65c | 555$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.25 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…ec56backed Under | 70c | 518.1$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.62 | 206 | 49.5%102 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked Under | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Under | 60c | 471.73$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.69 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81cf…9227backed Under | 62c | 404.81$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.14 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Under | 61c | 294.58$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.89 | 564 | 32.1%181 W · 383 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…ef37backed Over | 40c | 289.2$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Over | 40c | 260.28$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 304 | 40.1%122 W · 182 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Over | 33c | 222.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 905 | 37.5%339 W · 566 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…d0f1backed Under | 62c | 197.39$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…5efabacked Under | 61c | 167.16$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…30e0backed Over | 40c | 149.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Under | 61c | 148.44$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Under | 67c | 147.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267a…79ebbacked Under | 61c | 133.79$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 19c | 124$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 1,134 | 31%352 W · 782 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Under | 73c | 114.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…24dabacked Over | 40c | 98.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 211 | 40.8%86 W · 125 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387b…4367backed Over | 27c | 70.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 36c | 61.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…2862backed Under | 68c | 57.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Under | 63c | 46.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 170 | 67.1%114 W · 56 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…9812backed Over | 27c | 38.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 38c | 34.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 62c | 29.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Under | 62c | 29.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 330 | 42.4%140 W · 190 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Under | 67c | 20.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 390 | 44.6%174 W · 216 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Under | 62c | 19.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 369 | 46.1%170 W · 199 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 58c | 18.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- First Blood in Game 2?Weibo Gaming won
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.