Premier League · resolved market
Hull City AFC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b7600b2a0ac58fca4c8fa8408d64ff0563395d77a8063e2f8bd0062f6fc2d06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $609,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $610,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $609,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 52c | 517,831$269,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269,207.66 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -7.7wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…c255backed Over | 48c | 220,000$105,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114,400 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed Over | 48c | 208,333$100,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108,333.16 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 48c | 77,241$37,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,165.11 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 50c | 55,821$28,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,175.14 | 255 | 51.8%132 W · 123 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 15,655$7,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,664.34 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Over | 49c | 15,147$7,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,724.97 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Over | 50c | 14,832$7,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,416 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…dc6bbacked Over | 48c | 6,491$3,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,387.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…0840backed Over | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Over | 48c | 3,333$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.16 | 182 | 59.3%108 W · 74 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Over | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 135 | 65.2%88 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 50c | 1,507$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.16 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 52c | 1,491$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.96 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 46c | 1,269$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.28 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 50c | 570.66$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.33 | 232 | 58.2%135 W · 97 L | +13.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 54c | 555.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 67c | 537.1$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.24 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Over | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…abb9backed Under | 54c | 314.45$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 49c | 253.85$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.46 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 49c | 206.9$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 301 | 49.5%149 W · 152 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 52c | 180$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 191 | 45%86 W · 105 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 49c | 171.57$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.96 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd318…43d0backed Over | 46c | 157.24$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf835…28d3backed Over | 46c | 157.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 56c | 144.01$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 50c | 135$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 655 | 57.7%378 W · 277 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 145 | 51.7%75 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 50c | 115$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 351 | 57.8%203 W · 148 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 52c | 114.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 48c | 104.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 182 | 65.9%120 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28be…03fcbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ce…ea8dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 53c | 93.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 323 | 57.6%186 W · 137 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Over | 50c | 77.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked Over | 47c | 76.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 52c | 75.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 305 | 54.8%167 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 367 | 58.3%214 W · 153 L | +23.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 290 | 57.9%168 W · 122 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 282 | 55.7%157 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 283 | 59.4%168 W · 115 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 321 | 58.6%188 W · 133 L | +18.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 362 | 59.1%214 W · 148 L | +23.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x835c…8e3bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Under | 50c | 47.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.26per pick | 50cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x043c…595fbacked Over | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…9d6bbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…5bb0backed Under | 54c | 32.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a53dbacked Over | 49c | 30.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 49c | 28.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 49c | 27.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 269 | 59.9%161 W · 108 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 52c | 20.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 205 | 56.6%116 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed Under | 55c | 19.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 53c | 19.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hull City AFC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Hull City AFC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hull City AFC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hull City AFC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hull City AFC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5)Hull City AFC won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-2.5)Hull City AFC won
- Spread: Hull City AFC (-1.5)Hull City AFC won
- Spread: Hull City AFC (-2.5)Derby County FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.