Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b86f6979ef846b03424c72b12b3df9f445a2f9f630d0548c090018dffa9157d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 570.58$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 23c | 531.25$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.19 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 473.85$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.26 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 58c | 429.82$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 33c | 415.26$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.03 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 298.36$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.09 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 269.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.58 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 23c | 210.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.31 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 64c | 161.86$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 78c | 143.75$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 11c | 142.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 71c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 121.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 77c | 121.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 118.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 116.18$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 21c | 101.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 101.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 80c | 96.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 80c | 94.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 90.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 78c | 88.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 78c | 87.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 78.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 78c | 74.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 58.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 57.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b7…1682backed Yes | 70c | 54.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 53.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 52.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 78c | 51.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 24c | 49.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 42c | 48.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 34c | 48.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 48c | 47.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 76c | 46.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 23c | 45.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 33c | 42.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 74c | 39.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…e333backed Yes | 44c | 39.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 41c | 38.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 76c | 38.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 77c | 36.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 32c | 32.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 76c | 29.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 42c | 29.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…615abacked No | 64c | 28.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…8a4dbacked No | 79c | 28.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 50c | 28.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 36c | 28.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed No | 56c | 26.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 77c | 25.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…e93fbacked No | 77c | 25.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 74cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 25.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4faf…94acbacked No | 71c | 24.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed Yes | 70c | 21.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 59c | 21.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 63c | 21.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 78c | 18.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 80c | 18.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 57c | 18.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…93ccbacked No | 77c | 17.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 77c | 16.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 15.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 74c | 15.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6154…0404backed No | 79c | 14.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…9e55backed No | 80c | 14.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 55°F or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.