Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ba7283bab5aea9cbe425ae6d1aceba41fd4f87cb04d412401352eee3eacf689
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 2c | 489.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 255.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 230.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 228.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 210.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 166.86$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 162.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 24c | 147.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 105.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 72c | 99.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 91.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 91.16$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 79.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 30c | 76.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 16c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 69.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed Yes | 31c | 42.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 36.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 33.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed Yes | 35c | 33.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 70c | 32.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…7627backed Yes | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 36c | 28.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 74c | 27.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 22.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 71c | 21.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 20.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 68c | 18.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 68c | 15.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C or below on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.