Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bff969ebf24de5e5d396ed21a7eec9d2301cf3a16d6bc97b69e6bc05ada9d3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PlayTimeof PlayTime, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed PlayTime | 34c | 2,941$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.18 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 2,921$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.87 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed PlayTime | 48c | 1,500$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 702.5$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.4 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 297.5$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.6 | 120 | 65.8%79 W · 41 L | +15.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…7248backed Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked PlayTime | 33c | 121.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 68.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked PlayTime | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 39.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 36.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group BPlayTime won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime - Game 1 WinnerPlayTime won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime - Game 2 WinnerPlayTime won
- First Blood in Game 2?Nigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.