MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c0806068244bcb62790485288a20201a2a747e7b0c70ff558364ea0acefbce3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 39c | 1,659$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.74 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 62c | 1,576$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.93 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 15c | 1,429$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.36 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 76c | 1,068$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.17 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 37c | 406.04$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.84 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 34c | 192.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 41c | 183.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 46c | 141.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…b5b8backed Under | 42c | 116.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 40c | 116.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 40c | 116.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 42c | 68.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 39c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 80c | 29.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.