MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34683f6671be061592040596050c7e77f9afc90b93ef5676a5bfec8c45844403
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 1,843$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.9 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 42c | 1,586$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.7 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Over | 73c | 500.04$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.96 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 54c | 196.58$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.09 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 51c | 167.21$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…f5ddbacked Over | 49c | 99.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 43c | 84.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 44c | 82.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 77.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 66.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 50c | 63.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 28c | 53.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 57c | 49.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 55c | 48.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 54c | 42.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 253 | 56.9%144 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…5ea9backed Under | 59c | 33.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Under | 53c | 32.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…a2f7backed Under | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 47c | 31.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 46c | 30.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3adf…900dbacked Under | 60c | 30.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…a142backed Under | 59c | 29.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 41c | 28.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…3580backed Under | 57c | 25.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.