MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9427da93e9bd97b64f8ccba0c9c244d657496c2895f0c23b368663d9386566c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Colorado Rockies | 47c | 4,736$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,225.41 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 2,096$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.44 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 1,650$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.61 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 945.38$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.04 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 937.63$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.57 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 933.35$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 848.83$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.69 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4fcfbacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 735.07$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.31 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 447.45$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.3 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 301.25$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.65 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 197.61$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Colorado Rockies | 33c | 194.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 194.48$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Colorado Rockies | 44c | 139.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies | 43c | 129.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 56.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 54.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 48.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Colorado Rockies | 44c | 47.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 43.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Colorado Rockies | 41c | 42.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Colorado Rockies | 36c | 41.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Colorado Rockies | 45c | 39.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 35.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 34.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 32.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 32.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 31.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Colorado Rockies | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb71…b5a0backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 22.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 21.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.