NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Bulls
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c44c250eaa852ae208fc52066e9759efaa8350ab98313449a5393b41c1e3dc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Thunder | 78c | 6,364$4,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.88 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Bulls | 22c | 3,655$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.1 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Thunder | 79c | 2,280$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.92 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Bulls | 21c | 1,740$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.58 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738d…4df6backed Bulls | 21c | 1,173$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff4…7ebbbacked Bulls | 21c | 938.1$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Bulls | 24c | 625.93$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.22 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Thunder | 80c | 600$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Bulls | 3c | 464.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Bulls | 21c | 453.22$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 208 | 51.4%107 W · 101 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Bulls | 19c | 227.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Bulls | 20c | 222$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc136…0c3bbacked Bulls | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Bulls | 19c | 197.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 930 | 41.9%390 W · 540 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…3374backed Bulls | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x359f…eb89backed Bulls | 41c | 133.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Bulls | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -10.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Bulls | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Bulls | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…dc5abacked Bulls | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Thunder | 77c | 78.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fa…43adbacked Thunder | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…4de3backed Thunder | 56c | 53.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…6dbebacked Thunder | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8229…dfbfbacked Bulls | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…cbc2backed Thunder | 78c | 25.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6097…c40dbacked Thunder | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Thunder | 79c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b21…b755backed Thunder | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…9bc6backed Thunder | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee2…07c3backed Thunder | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1c…97d0backed Thunder | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x307c…828dbacked Thunder | 80c | 18.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.