Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c512bd076ea1ac1346723c92f749a5aaea2bf5158fe4748387c42b79bb20d79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,129 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 57c | 2,191$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.6 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 72c | 1,421$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.83 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 74c | 1,251$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.61 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed No | 71c | 1,241$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.11 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 58c | 970.38$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.56 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 29c | 723.11$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.4 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…8a18backed No | 70c | 699$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 70c | 627$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…aa15backed No | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 73c | 554.97$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.09 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 489.96$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.94 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Yes | 30c | 483.33$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.33 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 48c | 479.48$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.15 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 45c | 452.01$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.53 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 50c | 389.89$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.92 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 33c | 280.34$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.9 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 65c | 244.44$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 72c | 233.16$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.56 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 20c | 228.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed No | 71c | 178$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 10c | 175.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 29c | 165.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.2 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 44c | 127.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 29c | 111.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4049…25e4backed No | 32c | 89.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked No | 73c | 87.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…ab3dbacked No | 69c | 67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…9d51backed Yes | 34c | 58.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 27c | 57.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Yes | 30c | 44.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed No | 57c | 40.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked No | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed No | 68c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed No | 55c | 31.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…e251backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 52c | 25.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked No | 48c | 24.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed9d…444abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 71c | 17.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…ba62backed Yes | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 72c | 14.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ce…ea8dbacked No | 72c | 14.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-03-21?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.