Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82c954759f79d64aa6b2ad7e6fee15093a9742abb0187de33367fad3ca9e6893
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,045 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 5,204$3,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 43c | 2,318$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 38c | 2,179$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.45 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 39c | 1,400$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 39c | 1,250$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.43 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,212$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.85 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,098$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 71c | 1,051$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.48 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…eab4backed Yes | 29c | 1,034$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 39c | 967.31$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.99 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 29c | 862.07$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 29c | 718.24$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.95 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed No | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.67 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 64c | 573.08$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.31 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Yes | 69c | 432.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 62c | 340.52$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.9 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 62c | 339.5$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 54c | 335.17$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.71 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…7988backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Yes | 51c | 244.9$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Yes | 39c | 205.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked No | 44c | 194.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.25 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 61c | 157.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 38c | 157.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked No | 62c | 123.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 24c | 120.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4049…25e4backed Yes | 21c | 109.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Yes | 28c | 108.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 37c | 107.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 67c | 102.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked Yes | 39c | 82.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 35c | 76.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed No | 73c | 75.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 52c | 70.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 35c | 63.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 35c | 61.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Yes | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Yes | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a6…e4bfbacked Yes | 36c | 53.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed No | 71c | 52.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…08c0backed Yes | 37c | 45.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 43.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 79c | 42.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 71c | 33.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…e838backed Yes | 36c | 33.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…3f3ebacked Yes | 34c | 29.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 39c | 28.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56ce…ea8dbacked Yes | 39c | 27.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 77c | 27.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 60c | 22.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2445…24e6backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-03-21?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.