Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb39049a69ed0242cf07f5c8d9094304208775715d71d0acc3d7be8f9b5268c68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 21c | 11,904$2,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,467.67 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 79c | 4,687$3,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.2 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 26c | 4,162$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d8…31cfbacked No | 79c | 1,750$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 1,507$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.64 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,250$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.46 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 15c | 1,068$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.15 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 80c | 1,041$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.04 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 33c | 966.64$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.99 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 36c | 918.4$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.63 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 32c | 755.02$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.09 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 15c | 749.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 64c | 684.14$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.29 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 36c | 503.56$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed No | 79c | 481.01$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 29c | 473.05$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.14 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes | 13c | 387.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 36c | 386.93$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.29 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 27c | 274.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 66c | 252.22$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 36c | 221.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc644…1546backed Yes | 21c | 212.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +183.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Yes | 34c | 191.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Yes | 20c | 164.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed No | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…dc9ebacked No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 64c | 121.48$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed No | 79c | 117.16$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 113.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 63c | 112$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fa…ebf3backed Yes | 33c | 84.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 64c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 30c | 71.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 37c | 67.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed No | 77c | 62.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 33c | 60.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…0dfebacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed No | 64c | 55.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked No | 76c | 52.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…efe4backed No | 65c | 46.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 64c | 43.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 44c | 42.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked No | 67c | 40.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed No | 66c | 22.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 73c | 22.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 75c | 19.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.