Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c5aad83228951802431222037f469eea53d75b67714c6aa9c122e78a2a7bb18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Over | 41c | 451.43$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.35 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 16c | 439.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 336.55$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 46c | 315.52$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.38 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 289.85$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.27 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 58c | 175.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.77 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 59c | 156.01$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Under | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Under | 57c | 100.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca0…a4abbacked Under | 47c | 92.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 43c | 70.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 43c | 68.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 75c | 50.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 80c | 50.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 43c | 47.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 80c | 43.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 71c | 42.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 58c | 38.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 80c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 58c | 18.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.