Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Nicolas Ulrich vs Laurin Aerne
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ca9b9facc4aacb4b8cda6e0de9f81c55e02c8bc913466356fb68a92d4705d52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nicolas Ulrichof Nicolas Ulrich, Laurin Aerne
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nicolas Ulrich | 64c | 449.03$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.28 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Nicolas Ulrich | 65c | 295.74$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.27 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Laurin Aerne | 36c | 252.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Laurin Aerne | 35c | 192.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Laurin Aerne | 20c | 183.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nicolas Ulrich | 56c | 156.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…bb9ebacked Nicolas Ulrich | 74c | 135.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Laurin Aerne | 76c | 101.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…5fdebacked Laurin Aerne | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 243 | 44%107 W · 136 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Laurin Aerne | 20c | 96.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Laurin Aerne | 48c | 95.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Nicolas Ulrich | 70c | 88.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Laurin Aerne | 20c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Nicolas Ulrich | 80c | 76.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Laurin Aerne | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 307 | 55%169 W · 138 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Laurin Aerne | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Laurin Aerne | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Laurin Aerne | 30c | 64.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 563 | 37.3%210 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Nicolas Ulrich | 80c | 61.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…b9c5backed Laurin Aerne | 27c | 60.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 355 | 58.6%208 W · 147 L | +19.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Laurin Aerne | 45c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…2f71backed Laurin Aerne | 65c | 52.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 447 | 58.8%263 W · 184 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Laurin Aerne | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Laurin Aerne | 43c | 46.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Nicolas Ulrich | 54c | 46.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Nicolas Ulrich | 55c | 45.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 351 | 64.7%227 W · 124 L | +20.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Nicolas Ulrich | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…c60ebacked Laurin Aerne | 56c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 374 | 60.4%226 W · 148 L | +29.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3c…8290backed Laurin Aerne | 46c | 41.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…9980backed Laurin Aerne | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 221 | 43.9%97 W · 124 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Nicolas Ulrich | 35c | 28.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nicolas Ulrich | 73c | 27.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Laurin Aerne | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Nicolas Ulrich | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Nicolas Ulrich | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.