La Liga · resolved market
CA Osasuna vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cb87b60e6a1e0f9b149d34c7b8bfa849127c2b988bf16e60390fca2a96229c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 3,297$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.29 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 28c | 1,027$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.49 | 1,418 | 45.6%646 W · 772 L | -10.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 68c | 1,023$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.38 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 128 | 75%96 W · 32 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Over | 57c | 900$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 2c | 505.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 30c | 399.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 76c | 399.99$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.99 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 79c | 330.2$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 153 | 44.4%68 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 29c | 314.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.56 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Over | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 75c | 293.33$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 33c | 279.03$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 1,651 | 43.9%724 W · 927 L | -21.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 78c | 256.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 47c | 208.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa846…e5a9backed Under | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 114 | 27.2%31 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 70c | 136.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 65c | 132.31$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 100 | 63%63 W · 37 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…ae76backed Under | 26c | 93.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 66.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 421 | 58%244 W · 177 L | +29.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 63c | 63.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 37c | 63.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 24c | 57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…5f03backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 38.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 32c | 36.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 240 | 48.3%116 W · 124 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 64c | 31.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 80 | 75%60 W · 20 L | +13.9wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 174 | 55.2%96 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Osasuna vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5this page
- CA Osasuna vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Osasuna vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Osasuna vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Osasuna vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.