La Liga · resolved market
CA Osasuna vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf43bc5207d9c09b641e019b519343147038f9b4d56896baeb517d5fc73f1317c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Over | 1c | 47,731$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 3,103$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.41 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Under | 67c | 1,491$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 45c | 1,141$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.83 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 778.22$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.61 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 36c | 648.06$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.76 | 616 | 57.8%356 W · 260 L | +42.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 64c | 520.29$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.99 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +9.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…baa4backed Over | 44c | 504.73$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…95dabacked Over | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 64c | 447.1$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.09 | 75 | 73.3%55 W · 20 L | +20.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 40c | 435.06$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.68 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 50c | 427.96$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.97 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Over | 37c | 350$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.55 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 35c | 286.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 27.2%31 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Over | 48c | 242$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…63febacked Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 16c | 192$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 77c | 174.41$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 62c | 142.28$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…3a9dbacked Under | 75c | 129.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 37c | 105.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 49c | 96.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 17c | 89.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 14c | 70.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 37c | 67.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…1943backed Over | 51c | 67.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 30c | 65.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 29c | 56.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 195 | 44.1%86 W · 109 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…83a0backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 71c | 46.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 240 | 48.3%116 W · 124 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…c75bbacked Over | 28c | 43.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 34c | 43.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe636…e062backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 59c | 28.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 174 | 55.2%96 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…a489backed Over | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Osasuna vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5this page
- CA Osasuna vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Osasuna vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Osasuna vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Osasuna vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.