CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Chinggis Warriors vs Change The Game (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ce5b1d6f85496f54cc741c9597b745aecb11de27a89d1f58b7b3b4873932895
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Change The Gameof Chinggis Warriors, Change The Game
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Change The Game | 33c | 10,627$3,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,156.88 | 3,259 | 50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L | +98.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…5977backed Chinggis Warriors | 67c | 10,000$6,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,700 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Chinggis Warriors | 5c | 1,100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 101 | 11.9%12 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Change The Game | 36c | 344.54$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Change The Game | 79c | 300$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 453 | 57.2%259 W · 194 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…5379backed Chinggis Warriors | 64c | 259.22$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 314 | 52.2%164 W · 150 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Chinggis Warriors | 39c | 208.84$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Chinggis Warriors | 28c | 171.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Chinggis Warriors | 64c | 93.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…0acbbacked Chinggis Warriors | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa038…341dbacked Change The Game | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…6c18backed Change The Game | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…f543backed Change The Game | 40c | 42.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Change The Game | 40c | 36.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Change The Game | 69c | 36.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Change The Game | 51c | 32.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc088…0809backed Change The Game | 70c | 31.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…4322backed Change The Game | 75c | 26.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…b9acbacked Chinggis Warriors | 61c | 24.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Change The Game | 68c | 18.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 227 | 54.2%123 W · 104 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.