Asian League · resolved market
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d197ff6f889eecd503bf2f9eadc3faa4326bb4177791f60ba4c641d7188f388
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f0…2768backed Over | 57c | 13,790$7,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,791.28 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 7,588$3,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,070.46 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 44c | 1,810$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.68 | 1,101 | 49.7%547 W · 554 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 44c | 1,038$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.54 | 1,760 | 50.3%885 W · 875 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 37c | 1,029$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.1 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 43c | 723.31$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.79 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +11.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 670.74$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.06 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 29c | 557.39$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.16 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked Under | 73c | 522.5$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.52 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -7.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 63c | 474.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.72 | 876 | 45.1%395 W · 481 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 44c | 402.18$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.81 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 40c | 391.41$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.21 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 50c | 356.21$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.39 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 316.83$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.21 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 43c | 290$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.3 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 44c | 284$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.04 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 45c | 283.79$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.23 | 1,109 | 46.2%512 W · 597 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…aaf4backed Under | 46c | 239.25$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 227.41$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.15 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 21c | 226.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Over | 49c | 199.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Under | 42c | 172.36$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 37c | 124.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 2,397 | 37.8%905 W · 1,492 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 45c | 118.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 313 | 59.7%187 W · 126 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…586dbacked Over | 41c | 94.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 42c | 86.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…b7cabacked Over | 26c | 86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +244.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…95cabacked Under | 46c | 83.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63fc…4a6cbacked Over | 38c | 78.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Over | 48c | 74.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 47c | 68.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 55c | 63.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 59c | 62.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 53c | 42.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Under | 42c | 38.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…95f8backed Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993e…c4c3backed Under | 42c | 34.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f86…ef4ebacked Under | 51c | 30.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 51c | 29.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Over | 54c | 26.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 50c | 26.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…348ebacked Under | 47c | 22.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 57c | 19.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d010backed Over | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 60c | 18.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Over | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.