Asian League · resolved market
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa45530e03023a1e82aa78192c6e6561d698cdec44b1bbe0778f6d524c655bb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 1,139$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.67 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 33c | 999$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.67 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 23c | 809.1$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.45 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 26c | 777.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.29 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 567.8$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.45 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 78c | 455.57$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.35 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 76c | 389.05$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.37 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 37c | 388.01$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.45 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 34c | 260.41$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.48 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…6e5bbacked Over | 38c | 195.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 32c | 101.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 21c | 96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 81.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 19c | 76.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 19c | 73.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 70c | 71.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 39c | 64.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 39c | 61.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 62c | 55.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 69c | 49.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 79c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 75c | 45.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 62c | 38.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 78c | 35.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +33.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…7f75backed Over | 80c | 34.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 64c | 25.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…37e7backed Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 80c | 24.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63fc…4a6cbacked Over | 57c | 22.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5c…1cf7backed Over | 66c | 17.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.