Premier League · resolved market
Will Croatia win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d1e2791209512673c12481b6bf87329c2ec65e534f8aca7c731ec2cf1b444bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x364c…b541backed Yes | 70c | 4,041$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,817.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 31c | 3,047$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.56 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…4b3fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,322$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Yes | 69c | 1,142$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.19 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 30c | 1,095$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.21 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 31c | 840$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.6 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked No | 31c | 775$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…c0b8backed Yes | 69c | 722.21$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 36c | 657.55$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.78 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…998dbacked Yes | 70c | 428$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed Yes | 30c | 354.15$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed No | 32c | 345.75$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.11 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 52c | 293.39$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.44 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4425…919ebacked Yes | 54c | 276.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked No | 67c | 257.11$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fda…e2d6backed Yes | 30c | 240.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…62c8backed Yes | 69c | 216.36$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…7769backed Yes | 69c | 193.21$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…eca6backed No | 60c | 188.73$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1666…ba7bbacked Yes | 69c | 173.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf732…7c06backed Yes | 69c | 167.94$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 29c | 150.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.54 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec5…9fe0backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed Yes | 70c | 138.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5160…9d4bbacked Yes | 69c | 115.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…6c59backed Yes | 50c | 115.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff2…4cc5backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3b…9b82backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…4d84backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…b84abacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb4…8e90backed Yes | 70c | 99.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…8fd3backed Yes | 36c | 77.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e13…37f7backed Yes | 68c | 73.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…96a2backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…113bbacked Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedc…0241backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…e84fbacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade0…dbacbacked Yes | 69c | 69.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Yes | 39c | 67.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcba…04ddbacked Yes | 70c | 66.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…290cbacked Yes | 69c | 47.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fb…0c67backed Yes | 31c | 45.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…cfaabacked Yes | 69c | 45.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…35eebacked Yes | 68c | 43.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…11a0backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed Yes | 68c | 42.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…15c9backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0017…6e7bbacked Yes | 51c | 38.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +68%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…9854backed Yes | 71c | 37.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b10…b562backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…ade8backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…a3e2backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.5wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b06…f4abbacked Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9f…f7c3backed Yes | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…0212backed Yes | 68c | 16.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x289a…1909backed Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -49%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc478…0cdcbacked Yes | 70c | 15.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Croatia win?this page
- Will Albania win?No won
- Will the match be a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.