College Football · resolved market
Colorado State vs. San Diego State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d22b9d27a5c32038ba7a963a80390ffb92f0e0a5c8b5e078bf6fc41f9d0e12c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Stateof Colorado State, San Diego State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Colorado State | 36c | 34,132$12,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,192.62 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked San Diego State | 69c | 33,579$23,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,455.05 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaefe…1e4abacked San Diego State | 64c | 25,981$16,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,234.28 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Colorado State | 32c | 19,666$6,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,308.78 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…5eb9backed San Diego State | 68c | 11,524$7,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,687.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Colorado State | 33c | 10,249$3,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,364.4 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked San Diego State | 64c | 7,840$5,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,822.4 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Colorado State | 33c | 7,656$2,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,535.11 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Colorado State | 30c | 5,783$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.36 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed San Diego State | 66c | 5,057$3,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.44 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed San Diego State | 65c | 5,000$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked San Diego State | 68c | 4,489$3,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.48 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Colorado State | 34c | 4,412$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Colorado State | 35c | 3,884$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.37 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Colorado State | 35c | 3,134$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.78 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Colorado State | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed San Diego State | 66c | 2,271$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.08 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Colorado State | 35c | 1,678$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.3 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752f…9332backed San Diego State | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed San Diego State | 68c | 1,122$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.12 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked San Diego State | 66c | 963.61$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.04 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Colorado State | 36c | 890$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.4 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed San Diego State | 66c | 842.08$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.31 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked San Diego State | 67c | 802$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.66 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Colorado State | 23c | 574.71$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.77 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c23dbacked Colorado State | 34c | 558$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed San Diego State | 68c | 503.61$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.16 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…c27fbacked Colorado State | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed San Diego State | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed San Diego State | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Colorado State | 34c | 441.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed San Diego State | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Colorado State | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Colorado State | 36c | 334.59$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.45 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed San Diego State | 66c | 315.82$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Colorado State | 25c | 300$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed San Diego State | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked San Diego State | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73fdbacked San Diego State | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed San Diego State | 68c | 110.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed San Diego State | 66c | 105.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Colorado State | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ca…c7f5backed Colorado State | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked San Diego State | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Colorado State | 34c | 87.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked San Diego State | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Colorado State | 35c | 76.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked San Diego State | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed Colorado State | 35c | 72.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebd…3b11backed San Diego State | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…6a01backed San Diego State | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Colorado State | 33c | 60.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…7293backed San Diego State | 68c | 54.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Colorado State | 36c | 48.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed San Diego State | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.