Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d5ab15d11a3d8e9f40b45778183eda596e257f5cabd355bdbb15d309ebb0b17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 61c | 536.85$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.74 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 362.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…db38backed Yes | 32c | 256.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…d55dbacked Yes | 10c | 236.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 151.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 114.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 25c | 114.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 52c | 96.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 93.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 80.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 20c | 79.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 60c | 70.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 68.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 40c | 65.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…20e0backed No | 65c | 60.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 55c | 57.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 73c | 54.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 24c | 52.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 40c | 49.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 46.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 61c | 46.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 42c | 44.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 40c | 43.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 43.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 34c | 42.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 34.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 41c | 33.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 39c | 33.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 76c | 25.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…d435backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 62c | 22.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 61c | 22.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…3c2bbacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…ad85backed No | 75c | 19.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…4532backed No | 73c | 17.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.