Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d6e38379d84f55c20a5cb13ae3367faa3fcb6c1f6a06de76a9a417ebd085fd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 217.16$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 16c | 102.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 94.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed Yes | 79c | 78.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 78.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 78.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 54c | 69.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 18c | 60.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 54.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 76c | 52.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 53c | 51.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 50.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 43c | 43.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…21a5backed Yes | 64c | 34.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 43c | 34.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 28.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked No | 47c | 26.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 73c | 21.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 55c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53f…5c8bbacked Yes | 72c | 16.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.