Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf91d175ef62cd385aea6e0fe4cfcf7742fc4006e946478e04e1c278aff44a9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 69c | 187.3$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 21c | 166.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 136.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 130.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed No | 67c | 110.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 32c | 105$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 42c | 99.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 92.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 44c | 79.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 78.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 77.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 76.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 62.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 60.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 60.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 62c | 59.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 50.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 35c | 46.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb395…522bbacked Yes | 35c | 41.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 34.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 34c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 66c | 29.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 59c | 29.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 24.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 73c | 22.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 51c | 21.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…fd34backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 60c | 18.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.