Tennis · resolved market
Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Rebecca Sramkova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d7a533ef9e8886a96a14d1091cd26301fef20673c2df021d1e3d545cf8ed835
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sramkovaof Li, Sramkova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Li | 42c | 9,746$4,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,065.59 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sramkova | 58c | 6,476$3,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,689.27 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Sramkova | 61c | 4,903$2,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,931.94 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Li | 25c | 2,534$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.44 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sramkova | 37c | 1,141$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.2 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sramkova | 57c | 614.84$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.12 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Li | 62c | 600$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Sramkova | 48c | 599.87$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.44 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…0684backed Li | 64c | 401.75$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.12 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Li | 58c | 386.5$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sramkova | 41c | 327.06$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.43 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Li | 30c | 315.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Li | 35c | 206.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Sramkova | 42c | 182$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Li | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…1eb0backed Li | 50c | 154.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -11.1wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Li | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Li | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Li | 59c | 102.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Sramkova | 41c | 72.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Sramkova | 41c | 60.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…8166backed Li | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Sramkova | 61c | 36.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Sramkova | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Sramkova | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Li | 58c | 25.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.