Fifa International · resolved market
Will Cyprus win on 2025-10-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d8a1537a6a502847230dd9e2d53b9412afda60173e7c85ed638b8c80da509f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 8,497$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.68 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 24c | 6,383$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.14 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 77c | 5,000$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 76c | 3,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…d9aabacked Yes | 23c | 1,608$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93b…440cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,528$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 77c | 1,079$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.1 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 77c | 999.99$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 77c | 895.57$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.06 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 18c | 353.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 211 | 40.3%85 W · 126 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 22c | 219.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Yes | 11c | 217.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed No | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 23c | 147.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…a38abacked No | 79c | 131$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…3cfbbacked No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959b…35d1backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c24…8c06backed Yes | 23c | 73.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 20c | 69.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ad…fa6cbacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cyprus win on 2025-10-09?this page
- Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2025-10-09?No won
- Will Cyprus vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.