Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d9b619620025b2f10e7009b90ff131f5b1a8f86435106c0082b2e7fdc655930
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BALUof BALU, summer bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed summer bear | 56c | 533.29$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.87 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked summer bear | 38c | 437.22$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked summer bear | 72c | 306.96$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.01 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked BALU | 36c | 304.89$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.57 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…5857backed summer bear | 29c | 299.08$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked summer bear | 35c | 164.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed BALU | 66c | 137.03$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed BALU | 28c | 125$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…3fb4backed BALU | 28c | 104.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed summer bear | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked BALU | 27c | 98.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed BALU | 68c | 76.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 131 | 45%59 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed BALU | 28c | 60.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked BALU | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d98…1c46backed BALU | 66c | 35.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed summer bear | 42c | 30.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked summer bear | 53c | 30.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bsummer bear won
- Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 1 Winnersummer bear won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.