Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe605afa24da207828940bea92934d43c1e252fabfa47028954aa7f84a519ea1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- summer bearof BALU, summer bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked summer bear | 57c | 2,156$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.55 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked BALU | 49c | 1,677$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.37 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed BALU | 2c | 1,323$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…e21fbacked BALU | 43c | 971$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.45 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb9…1d15backed summer bear | 68c | 732.63$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.63 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked summer bear | 59c | 652.25$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.2 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed BALU | 41c | 604.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…7b0abacked summer bear | 52c | 600.79$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.37 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed summer bear | 52c | 599.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…d731backed BALU | 49c | 564.72$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.1 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed BALU | 23c | 546.74$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked BALU | 15c | 513.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked BALU | 32c | 470.31$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.58 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed summer bear | 67c | 354.44$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.97 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed BALU | 43c | 351.77$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.31 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed summer bear | 59c | 350$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed BALU | 46c | 341.46$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.07 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed BALU | 36c | 336.81$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.81 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…5726backed summer bear | 62c | 318.24$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.14 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5230backed summer bear | 67c | 298.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed BALU | 47c | 281.25$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.27 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…4fddbacked summer bear | 56c | 237.94$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.89 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed summer bear | 64c | 236.43$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.98 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked BALU | 37c | 224.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff7…bf32backed summer bear | 61c | 221.62$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 253 | 59.3%150 W · 103 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…f087backed summer bear | 67c | 204.07$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3c…2377backed summer bear | 52c | 199.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked summer bear | 70c | 192.92$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f78fbacked BALU | 32c | 184.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed BALU | 37c | 162.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed BALU | 45c | 154.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…5857backed BALU | 33c | 152.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked summer bear | 64c | 149.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…a7d2backed summer bear | 65c | 147.49$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked BALU | 39c | 140.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…142dbacked BALU | 34c | 140.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed BALU | 45c | 138$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked BALU | 36c | 132.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed summer bear | 64c | 125.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed summer bear | 59c | 118.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ff…425fbacked BALU | 21c | 117.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed BALU | 48c | 117.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…7763backed summer bear | 79c | 115.06$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…14e7backed BALU | 37c | 105.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed summer bear | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…43b2backed BALU | 39c | 76.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed summer bear | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked BALU | 27c | 74.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…e8c7backed summer bear | 62c | 72.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 206 | 61.7%127 W · 79 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed BALU | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked BALU | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe489…8804backed summer bear | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked summer bear | 55c | 69.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…292dbacked summer bear | 57c | 69.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 225 | 58.2%131 W · 94 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked BALU | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked BALU | 37c | 65.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked summer bear | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed BALU | 29c | 64.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed BALU | 49c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…6fbabacked BALU | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 225 | 43.6%98 W · 127 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa194…d4bebacked BALU | 32c | 59.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked BALU | 31c | 58.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked BALU | 39c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed BALU | 39c | 57.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b2…0ab9backed BALU | 47c | 57.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed summer bear | 66c | 56.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 282 | 52.1%147 W · 135 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…6929backed BALU | 35c | 54.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed BALU | 40c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked summer bear | 67c | 48.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…b1d4backed BALU | 33c | 47.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf380…17bbbacked summer bear | 60c | 44.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked BALU | 33c | 43.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb6…5154backed summer bear | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…cf1abacked summer bear | 64c | 28.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 304 | 58.6%178 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214a…9cd3backed summer bear | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f6…79c0backed summer bear | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d98…1c46backed BALU | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…26d6backed summer bear | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked summer bear | 64c | 15.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 300 | 54.7%164 W · 136 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 1 Winnersummer bear won
- Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 WinnerBALU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.