Fifa International · resolved market
Will Italy beat Belgium?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7daa51053104f4fe3bd0e4b78a32435b673a363701e8435d94d56795628c7b65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fa3…dc66backed Yes | 36c | 12,228$4,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,781.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 64c | 8,411$5,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,348.66 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 63c | 5,698$3,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,591.08 | 218 | 36.2%79 W · 139 L | -19.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919.98 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…53ddbacked Yes | 37c | 2,568$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b74…a4f4backed Yes | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 3c | 954.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…d46bbacked Yes | 37c | 816.78$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 56c | 758.45$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.8 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…3e1fbacked Yes | 45c | 625.89$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a09…4a9ebacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 64c | 199.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052a…4103backed Yes | 35c | 148.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 36c | 145.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 36c | 138.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.87 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…8cfbbacked Yes | 36c | 116.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec94…0897backed Yes | 35c | 114.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…7ec6backed No | 65c | 113.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 58c | 109.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0a…66a5backed No | 64c | 89.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf32…f308backed Yes | 36c | 88.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8e…ecf4backed No | 65c | 81.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…6e4abacked No | 65c | 67.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52f…5302backed No | 64c | 59.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…e90dbacked No | 64c | 57.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b29…d0a8backed Yes | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…2fd7backed Yes | 37c | 43.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 71c | 38.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy beat Belgium?this page
- Will Belgium beat Italy?No won
- Will the match between Belgium and Italy end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.