South American Leagues · resolved market
Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dafd3bbe0a1eeeec07507f37721ec4b57c4dd31ddf992fe15275a70eca898c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3451…a6e1backed Over | 10c | 4,000$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 25c | 1,990$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.77 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 78c | 1,069$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.72 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 25c | 338.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 75c | 300$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 77c | 277.84$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Under | 57c | 264.04$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.04 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 75c | 176$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 21c | 152.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 78c | 111.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 75c | 78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 75c | 64.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Under | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 16 | 100%16 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 33.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 73c | 24.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 103 | 65%67 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 62c | 17.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Under | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Under | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5this page
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)Caracas FC won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)Caracas FC won
- Spread: Caracas FC (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.