South American Leagues · resolved market
Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f236211c33be4b091af361a4946924c5e1f12fb13340672c3f2cbf2a5c67271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Over | 46c | 4,649$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,502.32 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 64c | 3,201$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.51 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…6b95backed Under | 3c | 1,187$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 1,125$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.4 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 54c | 1,010$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.39 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Under | 30c | 890.37$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.4 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 32c | 868.6$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.25 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 54c | 777.89$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.51 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Under | 60c | 655.55$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.33 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 65c | 511.44$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.44 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 55c | 500$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…f403backed Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 405.93$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.85 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 55c | 342.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.86 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 45c | 328.18$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.92 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 57c | 230.33$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.16 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 58c | 219$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.14 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 45c | 200.02$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 41c | 197.49$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.93 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 54c | 195.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 50c | 194.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 54c | 179.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 42c | 170.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 59c | 99.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 54c | 99.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 788 | 56.3%444 W · 344 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Over | 40c | 83.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 42c | 82.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 42c | 78.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…8f3bbacked Under | 55c | 63.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 55.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…df76backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 51c | 46.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Over | 45c | 44.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 42c | 36.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…39e0backed Over | 42c | 35.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +8.0wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1f…7b4bbacked Under | 62c | 34.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 45c | 28.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 129 | 58.1%75 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 55c | 23.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 53c | 22.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5this page
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)Caracas FC won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)Caracas FC won
- Spread: Caracas FC (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.