South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fd47204572ff96d4cd44718fcfbee9e2fe60f8dff36452ab026cdec872bdbbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Caracas FCof Botafogo FR, Caracas FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Botafogo FR | 23c | 876.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 124 | 14.5%18 W · 106 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Caracas FC | 78c | 767.58$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.9 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Botafogo FR | 19c | 639.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Botafogo FR | 22c | 345$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Caracas FC | 75c | 274.86$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Botafogo FR | 22c | 230.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Caracas FC | 76c | 180.98$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Caracas FC | 79c | 176.02$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Botafogo FR | 24c | 137.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Caracas FC | 80c | 123.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed Caracas FC | 75c | 120.13$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Caracas FC | 78c | 119.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Botafogo FR | 20c | 119.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Caracas FC | 79c | 108.69$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Caracas FC | 78c | 105.6$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Caracas FC | 69c | 97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Botafogo FR | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Botafogo FR | 21c | 77.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Caracas FC | 79c | 74.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Caracas FC | 80c | 74.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Caracas FC | 77c | 73.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…39e0backed Botafogo FR | 23c | 65.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +8.0wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Botafogo FR | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Botafogo FR | 21c | 54.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Caracas FC | 77c | 38.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Caracas FC | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Caracas FC | 79c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Caracas FC | 79c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)this page
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)Caracas FC won
- Spread: Caracas FC (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.